Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on overall mortality in Ozyorsk urban district

Osipov MV1, Sokolova VA2, Kushnir AS2
About authors

1 Southern Urals Biophysics Institute of the Federal Medical Biological Agency, Ozyorsk, Russia

2 Clinical Hospital “RZhD-Medicine”, Chelyabinsk, Russia

Correspondence should be addressed: Mikhail V. Osipov
Ozyorskoe shosse 19/1, k. 108, Ozyorsk, 456780, Russia; us.ibus@vopiso

About paper

Acknowledgements: the authors would like to express their appreciation to Yulia V. Tzareva, PhD, research fellow at the Department of Epidemiology, Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, for discussing the study results.

Author contribution: Osipov MV — concept, design, research coordination, statistical analysis and data interpretation, drawing conclusions, manuscript writing, and translation; Sokolova VA — analysis, study planning, data interpretation, discussion; Kushnir AS — literature analysis, data interpretation, manuscript writing.

Received: 2022-03-10 Accepted: 2022-04-02 Published online: 2022-04-21

COVID-19 pandemic announced by World Health Organization in March 2020 raised concern on potential demographic losses. This retrospective study was aimed to analyze the pandemic-related changes in the demographic status of the Ozyorsk urban district located close to the nuclear industry facility — the “Mayak” Production Association. Population changes in the Ozyorsk urban district over the last decade were analyzed based on the open-access demographic data. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demographic status of the Ozyorsk urban district was assessed using the crude overall mortality rates. Comparison of the overall mortality rates has been performed between 2020 and each previous year to assess the deviation of mortality from the forecasted value. The overall mortality rate in 2020 has been found increased significantly by 19%. Excess mortality attributed to the impact of the pandemic was 13.4%. The expected absolute number of excess deaths from COVID-19 being the main cause of death was 60 (4.2%). The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on the demographic status of the Ozyorsk urban district; however, the role of COVID-19-associated deaths in overall mortality was not predominant.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus infection, pandemic, population changes, mortality rate, Ozyorsk