Probability of infectious disease in humans during epidemic

About authors

1 Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks of FMBA, Moscow, Russia

2 Federal Medical and Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia

Correspondence should be addressed: Alexandr M. Karmishin
Shchukinskaya, 5/6, Moscow, 123182; ur.zmpsc@nihsimraka

About paper

Author contribution: All authors equally contributed to the methodology of the study, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation. All author participated in drafting the manuscript and editing its final version.

Received: 2021-02-16 Accepted: 2021-03-05 Published online: 2021-03-18

Popular SIR models and their modifications used to generate predictions about epidemics and, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic, are inadequate. The aim of this study was to find the laws describing the probability of infection in a biological object. Using theoretical methods of research based on the probability theory, we constructed the laws describing the probability of infection in a human depending on the infective dose and considering the temporal characteristics of a given infection. The so-called generalized time-factor law, which factors in the time of onset and the duration of an infectious disease, was found to be the most general. Among its special cases are the law describing the probability of infection developing by some point in time t, depending on the infective dose, and the law that does not factor in the time of onset. The study produced a full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence. The laws described in the study help to solve practical tasks and should lie at the core of mathematical epidemiological modeling.

Keywords: infective dose, probability of infection, incubation period, duration of disease, quantitative characteristics of pathogen, laws of disease