2021 / 01

Next Paper
DOI: 10.47183/mes.2021.007

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Probability of infectious disease in humans during epidemic

Karmishin AM1, Borisevich IV2, Skvortsova VI2, Goryaev AA1, Yudin SM1
About authors

1 Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks of the Federal Medical Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia

2 Federal Medical and Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia

Correspondence should be addressed: Alexandr M. Karmishin
Shchukinskaya, 5/6, Moscow, 123182; ur.zmpsc@nihsimraka

About paper

Author contribution: All authors equally contributed to the methodology of the study, data acquisition, analysis and interpretation. All author participated in drafting the manuscript and editing its final version.

Received: 2021-02-16 Accepted: 2021-03-05 Published online: 2021-03-19
|
Fig. 1. The probability density function of the infective dose D eliciting a specific response in a human or a non-human biological object
Fig. 2. The probability distribution function of the infective dose eliciting a certain response in a human or a non-human biological object
Fig. 3. The hazard factor law
Fig. 4. The probability density function for random values of the infective dose ID causing a specific effect and time of onset.
Fig. 5. The hazard time-factor law
Table. The full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence in the case of exposure to one pathogen